France and Turkey put EU and NATO at odds in Libya
While France’s President Macron may find EU sympathisers for his calls for sanctions against Turkey, his cries may be muffled by US pressure within NATO.
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France has announced that it is temporarily pulling out of a NATO mission in the Mediterranean, apparently in protest at the military bloc’s failure to support it in a recent dispute with Turkey. Early in June, France complained that a Turkish warship locked its radar on a French navy vessel, indicating that a missile strike was imminent. Turkey denied the accusation, but France brought it up to NATO, which said it would investigate what happened. Officials have said that a secret report prepared by NATO about the incident turned out to be inconclusive, angering the French government even more and leaving Turkey to demand an apology.
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France and Turkey have been at odds with each other in the Mediterranean since Ankara struck a deal with the UN-recognised Libyan government in Tripoli in late 2019. The deal carved up a maritime territory claimed by Greece, and saw Turkish troops sent to Tripoli to help the Libyan government defend the city from an offensive led by renegade commander Khalifa Haftar. In a show of solidarity with its EU partner Greece, France sent a warship to the region to intercept weapons being smuggled to Libya and reinforce the arms embargo on the country. In effect, this was cutting off arms shipments from Turkey to its allies in Libya, thus weakening the Turkish hand in Tripoli. Greece, never more needy for international support in dealing with Turkish naval intimidation in the area, welcomed the French vessel, as did Cyprus.
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The real issue for France, however, has been the gradual rise of Turkish soft power in North Africa, which was once France’s colonial playground. The fall of Algeria’s long-time leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who was deposed last year after 20 years in charge, has seen new competitors enter the former French colony. Concerned by the charge of Egyptian-backed Khalifa Haftar’s forces towards its borders, Algeria has shown more of an inkling towards supporting the Turkish-backed Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Where Algeria has gone, former French colonies Morocco and Tunisia have followed, further strengthening Turkey’s position in the Magreb. These countries are doing their best to stay out of the conflict and style themselves as possible mediators, but the reality is that Turkey is proving to be an appealing alternative to French influence in the region. What’s more is that this newly emerging power balance appears to have the backing of the US, which is more concerned about the Russian mercenaries found within Haftar’s ranks possibly marching towards Africa’s Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile France’s main worry is that its traditional route from North Africa to the mineral-rich Sahel region is being cut off by a rival power. France needs to maintain access to the Sahara, and has shown a willingness to stand on the same side as NATO’s arch enemy Russia to do so, and even with a putschist military commander who is accused of war crimes against an internationally-recognised government. Yet France has been unable to take unilateral military action against its NATO ally Turkey. NATO cannot give into French pressure to ostracise Turkey, as Turkey remains a strategic member of the bloc, with the second largest army after the US, and the only member seemingly willing to share a frontline with the Russians. Doing so would certainly destabilise the bloc and even lead to greater Russian gains in the Eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, local powers Greece and Egypt are unwilling to confront Turkey militarily unless absolutely necessary. Should France attempt to go it alone against Turkey, Turkey would certainly have the home advantage, while French troops would be exposed, vulnerable, and far away from vital supply lines. In such a circumstance, France cannot even rely on its EU ally Italy for support, as the Italians are not keen to see French influence expand into Libya, a former Italian colony.
Naturally, the Italians are not happy about any rival competitor entering its former backyard, especially since Libya lies immediately on the other side of the Mediterranean. However, Italy knows Russian influence will likely remain limited due to poor logistics between Russia and Libya, while Turkey, due to its diplomatic weakness, would be more likely to share power in future. Italy itself does not have the strength to get involved directly, and even if it did, its intervention would not be welcomed by the Libyan people because of its bloody history in the North African state. Italy’s best bet at getting a piece of the pie would be to get in sneakily under Turkey’s wing. The two countries in June held joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean as a testament to this strategy. And while Italy continues to advocate for Libyan unity and UN-led diplomatic efforts to bring about a ceasefire, it is happy to take advantage of the situation by maintaining an ambiguous stance. In other words, Italy is stepping back and saying “if you want my support, you’re going to have to spoil me”. One benefit has been a new maritime demarcation deal it secured with Greece. At the same time, Italy has had the luxury to put an arms deal with Egypt into question by bringing up the 2016 murder of an Italian student in Cairo, perhaps in a bid to seek favours from Egypt in other areas. Nonetheless, Italy does not want to see France succeed in Libya, and while carrying out its damage control, has assessed its interests to be better off in the hands of the Turks than in the hands of the French.
But France is determined to punish Turkey for interfering in Libya by exercising its position in the EU. President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a discussion about Turkey, suggesting the suspension of its EU membership bid and even possible economic sanctions. However, while Macron is likely to find sympathisers in the EU for his calls, the truth is that the real movers and shakers in the EU are also members of NATO, and are therefore more likely to give into American pressure to back off. Macron himself has long been an advocate for a European army that would undermine NATO’s position in Europe. This makes him a thaw in relations between NATO and the EU. It certainly does not make him very popular with the Trump administration, which is calling on European countries to contribute more to NATO. Regardless, the fact is that as things stand, there is no united European force that can confront Turkey, so Macron’s options are limited to diplomatic efforts only. The best he can do is utter condemnations, urge that parties abide by the UN peace process, and lobby for sympathisers. Threats against Turkey’s EU membership bid are not likely to deter Turkey from pursuing its national interests, and sanctions, if they pass, are likely to be no more than a symbolic slap on the wrist. A real attack on the Turkish economy could backfire, as there would be repercussions on European markets. Spain would feel the side effects of sanctions on Turkey the most, and would therefore throw in its veto.
It is a harsh lesson to learn, but France needs to bite the bullet and take a more humble approach in dealing with Turkey. It should perhaps follow Germany’s example of non-interference and diplomatic mediation. Indeed, it appears that the French episode in North Africa is over, and a new episode with Turkey at the forefront has begun. Like Italy, France needs to figure out where it belongs in this new status quo.
Ertan Karpazli is the Editor-in-Chief of Radio EastMed.
Tweets @Ertan_Karpazli
All views expressed by the writer are solely his own.
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