Iran not going down easily in Syria and Lebanon
Iran cannot afford to lose its grip on the Levant. The tighter the noose on its neck, the more it will kick. Its execution will neither be quick, nor clean.
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The demise of Iran’s grip on Syria and Lebanon has been long-coming. Gone are the days of the nuclear deal Iranian president Hassan Rouhani struck with the former Obama administration. Back then, there was some hope of a normalisation in the Middle East, and some kind of Israeli co-existence with Iran. But Israel was never on board with this dream, and Donald Trump made it very clear whose side he was on as soon as he became US president in 2016. Trump kept his word in cancelling the deal, in effect giving Iran no choice but to abandon the path of moderation and continue its forced entry to the Mediterranean via its militant and political proxies.
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Under the late General Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force, which is responsible for the overseas operations of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, boasted of many successes in the Syrian civil conflict. Working in tandem with the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group and the paramilitary Shabiha to bolster regime leader Bashar al Assad, the force helped create an all-important corridor linking Iran-backed Shia proxies in Iraq with the Levant region. This naturally has upset Israel, Iran’s sworn enemy, which has been targeting Iranian military commanders in Syria with airstrikes. The impact of these airstrikes have been minimal, but when a US drone took out Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in January, Iran’s operations in Syria suffered a major blow.
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Hezbollah, meanwhile, has been distracted by problems back home in Lebanon. The Lebanese pound has tumbled to 7,500 to the US dollar amid a major economic crisis that has seen prices for meat and poultry triple in recent days. People in Lebanon are growing ever more frustrated, with reports that some are resorting to selling their furniture in order to have money to eat. Already two men have been driven to suicide by extreme hunger. And as protests continue to disrupt public order throughout Lebanon, the people are blaming the country’s sectarian political elite for creating a failed state. At the centre of these allegations is Hezbollah, a powerful political party which claims to represent Lebanon’s Shia community.
Critics accuse Hezbollah of not being sincere in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure a vital bailout. To secure a loan, Lebanon will be expected to carry out important political reforms that would weaken Hezbollah. Hezbollah is quite content with the current system, as it guarantees them a voice within the national leadership. Under the current system, Hezbollah also controls Lebanon’s border with Syria, and is responsible for cross-border smuggling that has lost Lebanon billions in tax revenues. Among the items being smuggled to Syria include state-subsidised goods that fetch a better price across the border, leaving the Lebanese people short of vital supplies. The militant group-cum-political party will not give up these privileges easily, and without Hezbollah approval, the Lebanese government will not be able to fulfill the IMF’s conditions. Already two senior Lebanese officials involved in the negotiations with the IMF have resigned due to what they said was a lack of real resolve to make reforms. Instead, Hezbollah seems to be holding out for investments from China, but in doing so is putting the entire state of Lebanon at risk of implosion.
One may ask why Hezbollah would burn its own bread-basket by sabotaging talks with the IMF. It could be that the group believes it stands to gain more in the event of a total collapse of the state. Any retreat from its position would be a huge step back not only for itself, but also its main backer Iran. Hezbollah knows that Iran has no intention of surrendering the Levant without a fight, because to lose its corridor of influence to the Mediterranean would mean a permanent defeat that would be almost impossible to recover from. Should a civil conflict break out in Lebanon, Iran would be sure to double-down on its support for Hezbollah, the same way it backed the Assad regime in Syria. This is because, in reality, Iran is not interested in strong states in the region as much as it is interested in maintaining strong proxies.
But another problem brewing for Iran is Bashar al Assad in Syria. Just like in Lebanon, Syria has also been suffering from an economic downturn, which has been made worse by the implementation of the US Caesar Act sanctions that aim to target the Syrian regime and its affiliates. So bad has been the depreciation of the Syrian pound that Turkish-controlled areas in northern Syria have now switched to trading in the Turkish lira. Anti-Assad protests mimicking those before the civil war broke out in 2011 have emerged in the Druze-majority province of Suwaida. This shows that even ethnic and religious minorities in Syria that have typically seen their interests more aligned with the Alawite-led regime are now turning against Assad. To offset the crisis, Assad replaced his prime minister Imad Khamis with his water minister Hussein Arnous, but this has come across as a poor attempt to deflect blame. Yet, ironically, just as Assad appeared to be at his weakest, the US envoy to Syria, James Jeffry, suddenly said that the US is no longer demanding Assad to step down. It is only asking him to change his behaviour.
This can be interpreted as an offer to stay in power with US support in exchange for cutting off ties with Iran. Even Russia, who Assad ultimately owes his survival to, has very subtly been hinting that it does have a more compliant alternative on standby to replace him if he doesn’t prioritise Russian interests over Iran. The fact is, Russia’s main interest in supporting Assad throughout the war has been because his regime has been the safest bet for Syria’s Orthodox Christian community, which Moscow seeks to bolster. And while Russia and Iran have shared mutual interests in supporting Assad throughout much of the war, those interests are now starting to diverge, and it is clear that Russia will not sacrifice its relationships with Turkey and Israel for Iran’s sake. Assad now has a clear incentive to disown Iran and its proxies. The only other option for him is to continue on his current trajectory and face demise.
With this in mind, Iran can no longer trust Assad to serve its cause. While Tehran will continue to pressure Assad to act in its interests, it cannot rely on him alone. The reported visit of Iran’s new Quds Force commander to Albukamal on the Syrian-Iraqi border recently demonstrates that Tehran is by no means intending to pull out of the Levant, contrary to some reports. For Iran, it is an all-or-nothing scenario, and it cannot afford to allow its influence to be rolled back to its own borders. The tighter the noose on its neck, the more it will kick. Iran’s execution will not be quick, and it certainly won’t be clean.
Ertan Karpazli is the Editor-in-Chief of Radio EastMed.
Tweets @Ertan_Karpazli
All views expressed by the writer are solely his own.
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