The blast that destroyed Lebanon for good
The deadly explosion that shook Beirut on August 4 did more than just damage the capital; its political shockwaves were felt by all Lebanese people.
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Shocking footage of a huge explosion in the heart of Beirut was broadcast around the world on August 4th. The blast, which was felt and heard as far as Cyprus, killed almost 200 people and injured thousands more. It also left around 300,000 people in the Lebanese capital homeless as widespread damage was reported across the city. As details began to emerge about the incident, which left a huge smouldering crater in the middle of the city’s port, protesters gathered on the rubble of destroyed neighbourhoods to protest against government negligence.
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Too ashamed to put up any resistance, Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s entire government resigned just months after replacing the former government of Saad Hariri. This left Lebanon with no functioning government at a time when the country is trying to negotiate a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help deal with its worst economic crisis since the civil war. That crisis has been compounded with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, as well as the US Caesar Act sanctions targeting neighbouring Syria.
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The situation has also raised sectarian tensions within Lebanon, with many pointing the blame for the economic crisis and stagnation in IMF bailout talks on the Iran-backed Shia militant group Hezbollah. As a condition to secure a bailout, the IMF is requesting that Lebanon cracks down on smuggling along its border with Syria. The problem is that the border is controlled by Hezbollah, which profits from the smuggling of subsidised goods between the two countries. This, however, denies the Lebanese state of billions of dollars of income through taxes.
Many have warned that if Lebanon does not crack down on this smuggling, the state risks total collapse. Hezbollah has thus far shown no signs that it is willing to let go of its control of the border, and has been accused of prioritising its own needs over that of the Lebanese people. While giving lip-service to the bailout talks, Hezbollah has instead indicated it is more concerned about Iran’s agenda in the region to bolster its Shia allies.
Even though many Lebanese in general, regardless of which ethnic or religious demographic they represent, have grown tired of the country’s sectarian quota system which they say is mired in corruption that is turning Lebanon into a failed state, the power balance that has been in place since the civil war is so delicate that no one dares to be the first to attempt to overturn it.
So fragile is the situation that even Saad Hariri, son of Lebanon’s slain prime minister Rafic Hariri, kept relatively silent when a Lebanese court absolved the Hezbollah leadership of any involvement in his father’s assassination. Lebanon’s Maronite Christian president, Michel Aoun, also moved to quickly dismiss claims that the Beirut port blast was caused by ammonium nitrate that was being stockpiled there by Hezbollah for the purpose of making explosives.
How Lebanon’s political elites have dealt with the explosion paints a rather embarrassing portrait of reality on the ground in the country. Despite reports that Aoun was aware of the potentially explosive substance being located at a port weeks before the blast, he, much like everyone else in Lebanon, has refrained from admitting any kind of responsibility. And besides a few port workers who appear to have been made scapegoats, there is even a reluctance to blame the explosion on any other third-party.
There is some speculation that Israel was responsible for the blast. The way the fire preceding the blast broke out resembles a number of Israeli cyberattacks on facilities in Iran that have caused fires. Some have also suggested that the storage unit containing the ammonium nitrate may have been hit by some kind of missile. Israeli drones have committed a number of violations of Lebanese air space as of late. Nonetheless, Israel has not claimed responsibility for the blast. If it did, such an attack would almost certainly be interpreted as a declaration of war, which Israel would most likely prefer to avoid at the present time. Even so, Israel knows that Lebanon is even less eager for a war than they are. Assuming that Israel was behind the blast and Lebanon knew it, the Israelis know that Lebanon would never publicise the incident as an attack. Such an admission would ultimately pressure Lebanon to enter a war it is not ready to fight.
Failed state
Meanwhile, the people of Beirut continue to pick up the pieces of their broken homes as pledges of aid come in from abroad. The situation is truly a demonstration of the Lebanese state’s inability to look after its own people, as they are now left to the mercy of foreign powers.
This is where the real danger comes in for Lebanon. The state’s weakness is proving to be an invitation for other states to move in and carve up this strip of land along the Mediterranean coast. Lebanon is already an extremely polarised country, with Sunnis, Shias, Maronites and Druze all deeply divided into their own little cantons. It has for a long time been a sitting duck for foreign powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Syria — all of whom exploit the situation in Lebanon to push for their own interests. In the aftermath of the Beirut blast, France and Turkey are also signalling their own desire to get more involved.
French President Emmanuel Macron wasted no time. He immediately came over to visit the blast site in Beirut and show solidarity with the Lebanese people. Some would say he arrived almost as an imperialist leader who came over to give the leaders of Lebanon a telling off. Macron’s visit put these leaders in the position of mere guardians of France’s regional soft power. The French president vowed to come back again to check what progress had been made. In the meantime, he proposed a number of reforms to get Lebanon back on track.
Indeed, if anyone has any interest in maintaining Lebanon as a functional state, it’s France. Lebanon, a former French colony, is a host nation for French troops and still serves as France’s gateway to the Levant. France is gradually losing its influence in the Mediterranean, especially in North Africa, where Turkish influence is growing evermore visible. Therefore, the geopolitical importance of Lebanon for France is nowadays that much more significant. If Lebanon collapses, France cannot guarantee the safety of its troops there. France is also on good terms with Lebanon’s Maronite community, which by default serves as a proxy to preserve French interests. For France, the protection of Lebanese Maronites is of utmost importance for its Middle Eastern strategy.
Turkey, on the other hand, is well aware of the dangers of getting sucked into a Lebanese quagmire. Perhaps Ankara is a little less optimistic than France is regarding the longevity of the Lebanese state. Ankara is seemingly preparing for the inevitable collapse of Lebanon, and is focusing its efforts primarily on people and regions where it could retrieve some kind of benefit. For Turkey, that region is the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli, in northern Lebanon. One initiative has seen Turkey offer citizenship to Sunni Muslims in the Tripoli area who are descendants of Turks. Turkey may be interested in establishing an allied exclave around the city, much like its relationship with the other Tripoli in Libya. This would grant Turkey extra leverage in the Mediterranean, especially if it can establish a military base there.
For the time-being, it is difficult to say what the future holds for Lebanon, or if Lebanon even has a future at all. The international community is not ready for another Syria-like scenario that will send millions of refugees fleeing on boats towards the European continent. It also cannot allow current forecasts of hundreds of thousands of children in Lebanon potentially facing starvation by the end of the year to become reality. But the truth is, so long as Hezbollah continues to refuse to willingly let go its stranglehold on Lebanon, and until the Lebanese people themselves unite behind an all-inclusive national leader who will push ahead with much-needed economic and political reforms, these forecasts probably will become reality. This would no doubt lead to war, the outcome of which can be nothing but bad.
Ertan Karpazli is the Editor-in-Chief of Radio EastMed.
Tweets @Ertan_Karpazli
All views expressed by the writer are solely his own.
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